IFS Cycle 43r1 is an upgrade with many scientific contributions, including changes in data assimilation (both in the EDA and the 4DVAR); in the use of observations; and in modelling. Moreover, ENS hourly fields are made available up to T+90 for the Boundary Conditions optional programme.
Please note that hourly ENS fields are not added to the Real Time Catalogue.
With this cycle upgrade, the medium-range ensemble and its monthly extension see a major upgrade in the dynamical ocean model (NEMO): the resolution is increased from 1 degree and 42 layers to 0.25 degrees and 75 layers (ORCA025Z75). Furthermore, NEMO model version v3.4.1 with the interactive sea-ice model (LIM2) is implemented. The ocean and sea-ice components of the ENS initial conditions are provided by the new ocean analysis and reanalysis suite ORAS5, which uses the new ocean model and revised ensemble perturbation method.
|Implementation date: 22 Nov 2016||See News article|
|Detailed description of changes|
|Key characteristics of our current forecasting system|
Data set affected
|Scorecard for 43r1|
The new model cycle provides improved high-resolution forecasts (HRES) and ensemble forecasts (ENS) throughout the troposphere and lower stratosphere. In the extra-tropics, error reductions of the order of 0.5-1% are found for most upper-air parameters and levels. The improvement in the primary headline score for the HRES (lead time at which the 500 hPa geopotential anomaly correlation drops below 80%) is about 1 h.
Improvements are most consistently seen in verification against the model analysis. In the tropics, there is a small degradation (both against analysis and observations) of temperature near the tropopause in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) but not in terms of anomaly correlation. This is due to a slight cooling caused by a modification in the treatment of cloud effects in the vertical diffusion scheme, which overall leads to improved cloud cover. While there is a consistent gain for upper-air parameters on the hemispheric scale, some continental-scale areas, such as North America and East Asia, show statistically significant improvements only at some levels and for some parameters.
Increases in upper-air skill of the ENS are generally similar to the HRES, with a substantial gain for mean sea level pressure. The improvement in the primary headline score for the ENS (lead time at which the CRPSS of the 850 hPa temperature drops below 25%) is small (of the order of 0.5 h). The spread-error relationship is generally improved, partly due to reduced error and partly due to increased spread. For some parameters this improvement is quite significant, such as the 850 hPa wind speed in the tropics, where the under-dispersion is reduced by about 20% in the medium range.
Weather parameters and waves
The new model cycle yields consistent gains in forecast performance in the tropics and extra-tropics for total cloud cover, mostly due to a reduction of the negative bias in low cloud cover.
Changes in precipitation over land areas are small and overall neutral.
The increase in forecast skill for 2m temperature is most pronounced in the short and medium range, where it amounts to ~1% reduction of the RMSE in the northern hemisphere extra-tropics, and up to 2% over some land areas such as Europe and North America. In the tropics there is an increase of 0.5-1% in the RMSE for 2m temperature, connected to a slight increase of the overall cold bias at low latitudes. In the ENS there is a significant improvement in 2m temperature amounting to a 3% reduction in the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) in Europe.
There is an increase of the RMSE of 2m humidity by about 1% in winter associated with the introduction of limited evapotranspiration when the uppermost soil layer is frozen. This change contributes to the improvements in 2m temperature.
10m wind speed shows error reductions of 0.5-1% over the ocean, leading to improvements in significant wave height and mean wave period, especially in the tropics and southern hemisphere. Over land areas, changes in 10m wind speed forecast skill are generally neutral to slightly positive.
Verification results show a modest positive effect on skill scores although the differences are not statistically significant. There is a substantial improvement in the skill scores for the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), corresponding to a gain in lead time of 0.5-1 day at a forecast range of 4 weeks. Also, MJO spread is increased, bringing it closer to the RMSE. Verification of precipitation against analysis shows some degradation in the tropics which is not statistically significant, and a reduction of precipitation biases in the northwest Pacific.
The new cycle introduces a prognostic sea-ice model, leading to a significant reduction of the RMSE of sea ice fraction in the later medium range.
|New disseminated model output||
|e-suite experiment number 0070|